Will Iraq Collaspe?

[Shine_On]

With the coming American withdrawal, which may be well speeded up by the Obama administration, will Iraq collaspe into a civil war?

There's still a lot of divisions within the country. I think before the British arrived, it was 4 seperate regions. Is this to become the case again? Or has America done enough to allowt the new Iraqi government to retain control over lawless elements and the various factions?

It will be a disaster if Iraq collaspes. Not just for American policy, but for the entire Iraqi people and the region as a whole. If the Iraqi people manage to keep it together and remain united, America can take a bow, but more importantly the Iraqi people can take 2 bows and look forward to a great future.

Will there be external elements seeking to undermine the Iraqi government? I don't mean Al Qaeda or local factions, but external governments?

[peaceman]

I think yes it will, especially if America withdraws in haste.

The Iraqi government needs to be iron cast in its actions after the Americans withdraw. Any leniency on lawbreaking and call to arms must not be tolerated. Its always been the case in history, that any new government of a state have had to be ruthless in stamping out the opposition. So the Iraqi government, to keep IRaq as one country, will have to do the same.

If it can keep control of oil revenues, it may well just pull through the next few years.

[admin]

I hope not, though I'm skewed in favour of saying it will.

There are just too many factions biding time waiting for the American withdrawal, then they will make a move.

Its really up to the Iraqi people themselves. If they give support to the government the government will succeed. I think the first thing the government should do is call elections so a new government, or the same one, can be granted power by the people. That way there is no question of the legimacy of the government.